AGP Executive Report

Election Results and Coalition Math: São Tomé and Príncipe’s electoral commission says the main opposition MLSTP won the most seats in Sunday’s parliamentary polls, taking 24 of 55—short of a majority—while President Carlos Vila Nova’s Independent Democratic Action took about 23, making the MCI-PS/PUN a likely kingmaker as talks begin over who can form the next government. Voter Mood and Youth Exodus: As legislative, municipal and regional elections unfolded, voters repeatedly linked politics to jobs and living standards, with emigration driving urgency after a World Bank estimate of nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18% of the population). Voting Logistics and International Monitoring: The CEN reported elections starting 27 September for 142,000 eligible voters, with seven parties contesting National Assembly seats and an observer mission from the International Organisation of La Francophonie. Principe Conservation Payments: On Principe, Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has started paying residents small conditional dividends for avoiding environmentally damaging activities, but early payouts appear far below the advertised maximum, drawing both praise and criticism over whether it meets broader economic needs. Gender-Focused Philanthropy Debate: A Lusophone Africa discussion argues feminist movements in countries including São Tomé and Príncipe remain underfunded due to fragmented financing ecosystems.

Parliamentary power-shift: São Tomé and Príncipe’s electoral commission says the main opposition MLSTP won the most seats in Sunday’s parliamentary polls (24 of 55), but fell short of a majority; President Carlos Vila Nova’s Independent Democratic Action took about 23 seats, leaving the MCI-PS/PUN (around 6) as a likely kingmaker as talks begin over who can form government. Election logistics and turnout pressure: Elections for parliament, municipal bodies and the Autonomous Region of Príncipe started 27 September with about 142,000 eligible voters; the CEN briefed international observers and President Vila Nova urged calm and high turnout after July’s presidential vote saw heavy abstention. Youth exodus as the campaign’s core demand: Voters across the islands repeatedly linked the ballot to jobs and stopping young people leaving, citing World Bank estimates that nearly 40,000 São Toméans (about 18%) live abroad. Principe conservation cash debate: On Principe, Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has begun paying residents small quarterly dividends for pledges to avoid damaging activities; AFP reports early payouts are far below advertised maximums and critics say it’s a missed chance to align with government priorities.

Parliamentary power-shift: São Tomé and Príncipe’s electoral commission says the main opposition MLSTP won the most seats in Sunday’s parliamentary polls, but with 24 of 55 it lacks an outright majority; President Carlos Vila Nova’s ADI took about 23 seats, while MCI-PS/PUN won six and Basta two, making MCI-PS/PUN a likely kingmaker as negotiations begin over who can form a government. Youth exodus at the ballot box: Voters across the islands say the next administration must tackle unemployment and emigration, with World Bank estimates putting nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18% of the population), and many pointing to weak public services and the need for jobs and better living conditions. Election logistics and turnout pressure: The CEN reported parliamentary, municipal and regional elections started 27 September for 142,000 eligible voters, with international observers accredited; President Vila Nova and CEN head Jeudiger do Nascimento urged high turnout after low participation in the July presidential vote. Principe conservation cash debate: On Principe, Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has begun paying residents conditional dividends for avoiding environmentally damaging activities, but critics say it’s a missed chance to align with government priorities for broader economic and social needs. Regional politics spillover: A separate report notes Sierra Leone has introduced new citizenship pathways for foreign investors, described as similar to São Tomé and Príncipe’s earlier scheme.

Parliamentary power-balance: São Tomé and Príncipe’s national electoral commission says the main opposition MLSTP won the most seats in Sunday’s parliamentary polls, but with 24 of 55 it falls short of an outright majority; President Carlos Vila Nova’s Independent Democratic Action (ADI) took about 23 seats, while MCI-PS/PUN won six and Basta two, setting up coalition talks/kingmaker role for MCI-PS/PUN leader Domingos Monteiro, who says he’s open to backing whichever side commits to improving living standards, as the next government faces economic and social pressure including unemployment, emigration, and worries over public services, infrastructure, and access to water and electricity. Youth exodus drives vote: Separate reporting ahead of the vote found voters across the islands focused on jobs and staying power, with many pointing to rising emigration—World Bank estimates put nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18% of the population)—and calling for concrete action rather than campaign promises. Príncipe conservation cash debate: On Principe, AFP reports the Faya Foundation has started paying residents under Mark Shuttleworth’s conditional conservation dividend scheme, but critics say it’s a missed chance to align with government priorities for broader economic and social needs.

Elections in São Tomé and Príncipe: Parliamentary, municipal and regional elections started on 27 September, with about 142,000 voters choosing 55 National Assembly seats and local/regional authorities for four-year terms; the National Electoral Commission met international observers and President Carlos Vila Nova urged calm and high turnout. Youth exodus and jobs: As voting day nears, residents say the top political test is stopping young people from leaving, citing rising emigration (nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad) and demanding real job creation, investment, and better infrastructure. Príncipe conservation cash scheme: On Príncipe, South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation is paying residents a conditional environmental “dividend” for avoiding damaging activities, but early payouts are far below advertised maximums, drawing both praise and criticism over whether it addresses wider economic needs. Regional political spillover: A UK move listing 45 countries whose citizens need visas for landside transit could affect travel for several African states, including Djibouti and Equatorial Guinea, with knock-on implications for regional mobility.

Elections in Focus: São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary, municipal and regional elections began on 27 September, with about 142,000 voters choosing 55 National Assembly seats and local/regional authorities for four-year terms; the CEN met international observers and President Carlos Vila Nova urged turnout and calm during counting. Youth Exodus & Jobs: Ahead of the vote, voters across the islands said the top priority is stopping young people from leaving, citing weak opportunities and calling for real action on employment, living conditions, and infrastructure. Campaign Participation Push: Portuguese-language reporting highlights appeals to counter last July’s high abstention, with multiple parties contesting and the CEN president stressing that each vote shapes the country’s future. Principe Conservation Dividend: On Príncipe, AFP reports South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has started quarterly payments to residents who pledge to avoid environmentally damaging activities, drawing both praise and criticism over whether it replaces broader government-led development. Regional Governance Angle: The election coverage also underscores the political stakes for Príncipe’s autonomous region, where voters are looking for change that matches everyday needs.

Elections in focus: São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary, municipal and regional elections kicked off on 27 September, with about 142,000 voters choosing 55 National Assembly seats and local/regional authorities, while President Carlos Vila Nova and the National Electoral Commission urged turnout after low participation in July’s presidential vote. Youth exodus and jobs: Across the campaign, voters repeatedly flagged the same priority: stopping young people leaving by creating real work and investment, with World Bank estimates putting nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18% of the population). Príncipe environment vs livelihoods: On Príncipe, AFP reports early payments under Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation “dividend” scheme—conditional on residents avoiding damaging activities—have begun, but critics say it’s too small and not a substitute for broader government-led economic plans. Regional political context: The week also saw broader international attention to São Tomé and Príncipe in sports and policy spillovers, including a note that Ethiopia’s AFCON qualifiers previously included Sao Tomé and Príncipe in preliminary rounds.

Elections in Focus (São Tomé & Príncipe): Parliamentary, municipal and regional elections started on 27 September, with CEN saying about 142,000 voters are eligible for 55 National Assembly seats and Príncipe’s regional authorities, while international observers were briefed and President Carlos Vila Nova urged calm and turnout. Youth Exodus & Jobs: As voting day arrives, residents repeatedly link their support to one demand: stop young people leaving by creating real work, with turnout concerns raised after July’s presidential vote saw heavy abstention. Campaign Landscape: Coverage ahead of the vote highlights calls to avoid irregularities and the push for promises to be delivered, as voters weigh parties contesting seats and local posts. Principe Conservation Dividend: On Príncipe, AFP reports Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has begun paying residents for environmental pledges, but critics say the amounts are small and the approach misses wider government-backed economic needs. Regional/External Watch: Separate reporting flags UK visa rules affecting transit for many countries, while broader regional stories include renewed fighting in Ethiopia—context that can shape migration and security pressures.

Election Countdown: São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary, municipal and regional elections started on 27 September, with about 142,000 voters choosing 55 National Assembly seats, local bodies, and Príncipe’s autonomous authorities for four-year terms; CEN briefed international observers from La Francophonie and President Carlos Vila Nova urged high turnout and calm counting. Youth Exodus as Campaign Fuel: Ahead of the vote, voters say the biggest issue is stopping young people leaving—World Bank estimates put nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18%), and turnout anxiety follows July’s low participation. Voting Options and Stakes: Reports say more than 146,000 people are voting, with ADI, MLSTP, MCI-PUN and Movimento Basta contesting seats, while PCD, MDFM and the newly created Nossa Terra also run. Principe Nature Dividend: On Príncipe, Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has begun paying residents for pledges to avoid damaging activities; early payouts are far below advertised maximums, drawing both praise and criticism over whether it replaces broader government development needs. Regional Context: A separate report notes São Tomé and Príncipe appears among flags linked to alleged Russian shadow-fleet sanctions evasion, underscoring security and governance pressures beyond the election.

Elections Kick Off: São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary, municipal and regional elections began on 27 September, with the National Electoral Commission (CEN) saying about 142,000 voters are eligible and seven parties contest 55 National Assembly seats plus local and Príncipe regional authorities for four-year terms. Observer Setup: CEN met accredited international observers, including a La Francophonie mission led by Angélique Ngoma, to outline monitoring rights and responsibilities. Turnout Pressure: President Carlos Vila Nova and CEN chief Jeudiger do Nascimento urged voters to turn out, warning that abstention “banalizes” the vote. Youth Exodus Dominates Campaign: Voters across the islands say the top issue is stopping young people leaving, citing job shortages and calling for investment, new businesses, and better transport links. Príncipe Conservation Cash Scheme: Separate from the vote, AFP reports Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has started paying Príncipe residents for pledges to avoid environmentally damaging activities, but critics say payouts are far below promised levels and don’t replace broader government-led development.

Election Watch (São Tomé & Príncipe): With legislative elections on Sunday, voters say the top issue is stopping youth exodus. Reports cite World Bank estimates of nearly 40,000 São Toméans abroad (about 18% of the population), labor shortages, and low confidence among young voters—some even skipping the ballot—while the ruling party’s candidate, Foreign Minister Ilza Amado Vaz, pushes private investment and high-value tourism. Nature & Local Economy (Príncipe): South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation is paying residents for pledges to avoid damaging activities, but early payouts fall far below advertised levels, with critics calling it a missed chance to align with government priorities. Regional Politics/Geopolitics (Cross-border): Ukraine’s intelligence alleges Russian “shadow fleet” vessels flagged in multiple countries, including São Tomé and Príncipe, are tied to sanctions evasion and energy logistics. Sports & Politics Link (Qualification Path): Ghana’s U-23 coach Desmond Ofei named a 26-man squad for CAF U-23 qualifiers, with São Tomé and Príncipe listed as a potential opponent in the next qualifying round.

Elections in São Tomé and Príncipe: With Sunday’s vote approaching, residents say the top political issue is stopping youth from leaving. Voters at markets and taxi ranks want jobs, new business opportunities, and major infrastructure like a new port and airport, while some supporters of the ruling ADI and the main opposition MLSTP push for change and warn against irregularities. Principe conservation dividend under scrutiny: On Principe, South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has started paying residents for pledges to avoid environmentally damaging activities. But early payouts are far below the advertised maximum, and critics say the approach risks missing a chance to coordinate with government on broader economic and social needs. Regional political backdrop: Separate reporting highlights renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, underscoring how fragile stability remains across the continent.

Elections in São Tomé and Príncipe: With Sunday’s vote approaching, residents say the top priority is stopping youth from leaving. Voters across São Tomé’s markets and taxi ranks want jobs, new business opportunities, and better infrastructure, while some young motorcycle-taxi drivers question whether voting can change anything. Nature, money, and politics on Príncipe: South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth’s Faya Foundation has started paying residents for pledges to avoid environmentally damaging activities. But early payouts are far below what the scheme advertises, and critics say it’s a missed chance to align with government plans for broader economic and social needs. Regional instability with spillover risk: Ethiopia’s 2022 truce has reportedly broken down again, with renewed clashes tied to accusations between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, raising fears of wider instability in the region.

Principe Environment & Local Economy: South African tech entrepreneur Mark Shuttleworth is paying Principe residents a quarterly “dividend” via his Faya Foundation to protect the island’s forests and beaches, offering up to 6,250 dobras (about $290) per quarter for written pledges to avoid sand extraction and unregulated logging—critics say it’s helpful but also a missed chance for deeper government-backed economic and social planning. Elections & Youth Migration: With São Tomé and Príncipe heading into Sunday elections, voters across the islands say the top priority is stopping young people from leaving, pushing for jobs, new businesses, and major infrastructure like a new port and airport, while campaigning continues between ADI and MLSTP. Foreign Influence & Information Security: Ukraine’s defense intelligence alleges Russian-linked “shadow fleet” vessels operate under flags including São Tomé and Príncipe, tied to sanctions evasion and logistics, while separate reporting warns of fake Ukrainian media sites using São Tomé and Príncipe domains to spread pro-Russian misinformation. Regional Diplomacy & Development: A Portuguese-funded OIT “Action/Portugal” seminar phase is set to expand social protection for informal workers, including São Tomé and Príncipe among partner countries.

Elections & Youth Exodus: São Tomé and Príncipe heads into Sunday’s vote with voters focused on one urgent promise: jobs to stop young people leaving. From market stalls to taxi ranks, people say the country feels “chaotic” and stagnant, while campaign screens and party leaflets frame a high-stakes legislative contest between ADI and MLSTP. Disinformation Risk: Ukraine-linked reporting says fake media pages used São Tomé and Príncipe’s “.st” domains to spread pro-Russian narratives, including claims about alleged mobilization and security-service actions. Russian Cultural Expansion: Russia’s “Russian House” network plans major growth, with new centres including in São Tomé and Príncipe, aiming to expand language, education, and youth projects. Energy & Regional Footprint: Petrobras continues expanding across Africa, including operations in São Tomé and Príncipe, as it signs new oil and gas deals elsewhere in the region. Social Protection Policy: Portugal/OIT-backed “Action/Portugal” is pushing wider social protection for informal workers, explicitly naming São Tomé and Príncipe among partner countries.

Election Watch (São Tomé and Príncipe): With Sunday’s vote approaching, residents say the top priority is stopping youth from leaving, pushing for jobs, new businesses, and major infrastructure like a new port and airport, while voters also demand a clean process amid concerns about irregularities. Foreign Influence & Information Security: Ukraine’s defense intelligence alleges 38 vessels tied to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” including ships flagged to São Tomé and Príncipe, are used to evade sanctions and move energy and military logistics. Cultural Diplomacy Expansion: Russia’s “Russian House” network plans new partner centres, with São Tomé and Príncipe among the locations slated to open, expanding language, education, and youth programming. Energy & Regional Business Links: Petrobras says it operates in São Tomé and Príncipe and continues building its African footprint, while broader regional oil-and-gas cooperation deals underscore how Gulf of Guinea states remain central to investment and geopolitics. Disinformation Risk: A report describes fake Ukrainian media pages using São Tomé and Príncipe domains to spread pro-Russian narratives, highlighting how the country’s online space can be exploited.